A Petrodollar Tsunami Is Coming投稿日: 2008年 2月 25日
Morgan Stanley の Stephen Jen と Charles St-Arnaud によれば・・・
“These oil-exporting countries, with the exception of Russia, cannot fully spend the oil receipts, and therefore much of these trade surpluses will be channeled into the global financial markets… [A] good part – we guesstimate half or so – of these cumulative receipts will be recycled through SWFs. Thus, while there might be a lot of focus on foreign sovereign entities acquiring strategic assets, the root cause of this trend is high oil prices… [B]ulging petrodollars will keep global long-term interest rates artificially low, in our view. As the US savings-investment deficit shrinks, excess global savings are likely to intensify, forcing the world’s cost of capital lower.”
In the words of Jen and St-Arnaud, a petrodollar tsunami is coming.