アップル株を再評価するアナリスト

Iphone-5

アナリストたちがアップル株の再評価を始めたと Bloomberg が書いている。

その背景にはこれまできちんと認識されていなかった経理処理方法の変化もあるようだ。

Bloomberg: “Apple IPhone Fees Prompt Analysts to Revalue Earnings (Update2)” by Connie Guglielmo: 08 November 2007

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200 ドル予想を出したときはバカにされた

Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) — Before Apple Inc. shares cracked $100 six months ago, fund manager Stephen Coleman predicted they would surpass $200 by year-end. His post on the Web site Seeking Alpha drew ridicule from other investors.

“I was called a fool and worse,” said Coleman, founder of Daedalus Capital LLC in St. Louis, an Apple holder since 2004. After a 67 percent rise in fourth-quarter profit, the shares reached a record $191.79. Analysts say they will keep rising.

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繰延歳入(deferred revenue)がプラスに働く

Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs jumpstarted optimism about the power of the iPhone, the $399 Web-surfing mobile device he introduced in June, to generate a steady flow of cash. Analysts are revaluing the stock because each sale brings Apple a cut of monthly wireless service fees from AT&T Inc., and sales of the phone are recognized over 24 months.

This has led analysts including Credit Suisse’s Robert Semple and Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore to use multiples of cash flow rather than earnings to estimate Apple’s stock price, reflecting an anticipated pileup of deferred revenue. Twelve analysts raised their estimates above $200 last month, even as earnings per share multiples reached their highest in two years.

“EPS significantly understates the value of the company,” said Daedalus’s Coleman. “We have to wait 24 months to track the full impact of a unit sale today on earnings per share.”

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250 ドルはもちろん、600 ドルだって・・・

Semple, in New York, says the shares will reach $210 based on a multiple of 21.7 times calendar 2008 free cash flow of $8 billion, up from $5.5 billion this year. Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster bases his $250 estimate, the highest on the Street, on 25 times “booked” profit of $9.50 a share in calendar 2009, higher than his $7.06 estimate for reported earnings. Coleman, using more aggressive cash-flow predictions for the iPhone, says the shares will reach $600 in 18 months.

Analysts also need to factor in the 250,000 phones out of 1.4 million sold through Sept. 29 that were unlocked and used on other networks, depriving Apple and AT&T of revenue. Apple has limited sales to two per customer and stopped taking cash for the iPhone to discourage resellers.

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問題は顧客サービスの質を維持できるかどうか

Grossman says if he has any concern it’s that Apple, expanding too fast, may compromise the customer service and product quality that help it stand out among PC rivals such as Round Rock, Texas-based Dell. High expectations could also make investors jittery.

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