どこまで上がるアップルの株価投稿日: 2007年 11月 10日
アップルは iPhone や Apple TV などハードの収益を２４か月にわたって繰延計上すると４月に発表したが、今になってその効果が出始め、アナリストたちもやっと認識するにいたった、と Carl Howe がいっている。
Blackfriars’ Marketing: “Analysts starting to realize Apple has a brand new source of revenue” by Carl Howe: 08 November 2007
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Hidden revenue justifies a higher P/E ratio. Apple announced in April that it would recognize revenue from the iPhone and Apple TV hardware sales over 24 months. This means that iPhone and Apple TV sales will largely appear on Appleﾕs balance sheet for the next couple years instead of in its income statement. Blackfriars believes that this hidden and guaranteed future revenue justifies raising the P/E ratio that we use to calculate target stock prices to 35 from 30. We fully expect Apple stock to reach those new targets of $131 in FY07 and $161 in FY08.
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The fact that Apple-branded products show up — the only consumer electronics products specified by name — in the top three most in demand consumer products suggests that Apple’s holiday sales will be above what many expect. And with November iPhone launches occurring in the UK, Germany, and France, and the Euro-to-dollar exchange rate rising, Apple is developing a recurring revenue stream that no one really has historical data for, yet we believe that this revenue stream will add billions of dollar to its balance sheet each quarter.
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Carl Howe によるアップルの収益モデル
So here’s a rule of thumb I’ve come up with to provide a handle on Apple earnings, based upon my own models.
In very rough numbers, each million iPhones sold adds about $0.02 per share to annual earnings, $2 to Apple’s target stock price, and $350 million to its balance sheet.
Looked at this way, if Apple sells ten million iPhones next year, just those iPhones will have added $0.20 to its earnings, $20 to its stock price, and almost $3.5 billion to its cash horde to pay for future earnings. And of course, the iPhone is only one — and currently the smallest — of Apple’s four lines of business. So unless Apple stumbles somewhere along the way, those $250 price goals that analysts are quoting aren’t ridiculous; they’re just based on revenue streams and deferred revenue that aren’t immediately obvious.