今が買い時：ウォーレン・バフェットのアドバイス

［Warren Buffett］

世界最大の投資会社 Berkshire Hathaway の総帥ウォーレン・バフェット（Warren Buffett）がニューヨークタイムズに寄稿している。

New York Times: “Buy American. I Am.” by Warren E. Buffett: 16 October 2008

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金融界は大混乱だ。アメリカも、世界も・・・。さらに問題なのは、金融危機が一般経済にも影響を与え始めていることだ。その影響は奔流となっている。近い将来、失業は増え、経済活動は低迷するだろう。ニュースの見出しを見るのが怖い。

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

だから・・・私はアメリカの株を買っている。

So … I’ve been buying American stocks.

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何故か？

Why?

私が株を買うルールは単純だ。他人が貪欲になったときは恐れよ、他人が恐れるときは貪欲になれ。

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

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私にだって株価の予測はできない・・・

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

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株なんて、長い冬をじっと持ちこたえられる余裕のあるひとだけが買うべきものだということか・・・

★ →［原文を見る：Original Text］

Technorati Tags: Economy, Financial Crisis, Warren Buffett, Stock

アップル株 119.46 ドル↓

なんとアップルの株価が 120 ドルを割り込んだ！

アメリカ経済はそこまで悪いということか・・・

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こちらには 117.71 ドルまで下がったという記事も・・・

Technorati Tags: Apple, Stock

石のように転げ落ちるグーグル株

アップルだけでなくグーグルの株価も下落が続いている。

ParisLemon: “Google: Like A Rock (That Is, Falling Like One)” by MG Siegler: 04 February 2008

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500 ドルを割り込む

今日も５％続落して、グーグル株は昨年８月以来初めて 500 ドルを割り込んだ。１２月末まで上昇が続き 700 ドルを超えていたことや、１１月には 750 ドルに手が届きそうで、みんな 1000 ドルもあり得るといっていたのが記憶に新しい。

Google has thus far today dropped another 5% of its stock price to drop below the $500 mark for the first time since last August. Remember, up until the final days in December the stock was still over $700 a share, and it was near the $750 a share level (with everyone talking $1000) back in November.

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一体どうして？

かくも急速に下降に転じたのは一体どういうわけか。それらしき理由は三つほどある。

So what is it that’s caused such a rapid swing? Well it’s seemingly been 3 main factors:

１）ぱっとしない経済
２）初めての市場予想を下回る決算
３）マイクロソフトのヤフー買収提案

1) the crap economy
2) missed earnings for the first time
3) Microsoft trying to buy Yahoo

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ちょっと予想を下回っただけなのに

これら三つの要因が絡んでいるにしても、かくも大幅に、かくも急速にグーグル株が下落するのはちょっと異常だ。

Yet even with those three major developments, it seems a bit odd that Google would fall so far so quickly.

確かにクーグルがウォール街の予想をわずかに達成できなかったのは事実だ。純収益は予想を下回って 6000 万ドルだった。前期より伸びてはいたけれど・・・。売上高が 33 億 9000 万ドルであることを考えれば、6000 万ドルなんて景気低迷のこの時期さして理不尽とは思えないような気がする。そもそもこんなに景気が悪くなるなんてアナリストすら予想しなかったのだから。純売上高は増えた。収益も増えた。AdSense の収益も増えた。それも大幅に増えた。なのにみんなパニックだ。

Yes, Google missed Wall Street projections of price per share – by one penny. Net revenue was off – of the projections – $60 million dollars, but still up. And when you consider the revenue was $3.39 billion dollar, $60 million doesn’t seem like an unreasonable amount to be off in a slowing economy that analysts no doubt didn’t anticipate to slow as much as it did. Net income rose, revenue rose, revenue from AdSense rose – and they all rose substantially. Yet still everyone is freaking out.

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思い込みが現実を支配

これはある意味で思い込みが現実を支配するケースだと思う。今日現在のグーグルは、株価が 750 ドルだった１１月とさして変わりはない。たとえマイクロソフトのヤフー買収が実現しても、収入を生み出す検索とオンライン広告におけるグーグルの絶対的優位は揺るがない。

And so, in some ways we have a case of perception being reality. Google is really not much different today then they were in November when they were at $750. Even if a Microsoft purchase of Yahoo were to go through, Google would still have the absolute dominant position in both search and online advertising – where the money comes from.

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たったひとつのこと

まさしく現在のアップルの状況とそっくりで・・・とても悪い。ただし、短期の投資家とっての話だが・・・

It’s a lot like the situation with Apple right now – bad…for short-term investors.

よっぽどグーグルがへまをしない限り、景気が悪化してもオンライン広告は伸びると考えられる。最近の急速な株価の下落は、たったひとつのことをみんなに指し示しているようだ。「買い」だ。

With online advertising still expected to grow despite a worsening economy, unless Google really messes something up in the next year, this rapid descent in stock price may just mean one thing for a lot of people: buy.

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このエントリー投稿の時点で、グーグル 506.80 ドル↑、アップル 129.36 ドル↓・・・

Technorati Tags: Apple, Google, Stock

Apple Earnings Up, but Stock Falls on Outlook

アップルの歴史始まって以来のすばらしい業績だというのに、世界同時株安の中で皮肉にも株価は下がってしまった。

Fortune [Apple 2.0]: “Apple’s record Q1 earnings fall on deaf ears” by Philip Elmer-DeWitt: 22 January 2008

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster confessed that in his five years of covering Apple he’s never seen anything like the market’s reaction to these earnings. “I talked to one of our technical analysts before the call and he told me that the stock was going down to 130 no matter what results Apple posted,” Munster said in a phone interview. “Something bigger is going on in people’s minds. There’s a feeling that stocks need to go back to their 200 day averages as the market corrects itself. This is not a bullish sign for other tech stocks going forward.”

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→［Seeking Alpha | Apple F1Q08 (Qtr End 12/29/07) Earnings Call Transcript］
→［Reuters | Apple forecast below Wall Street targets］
→［ロイター | 米アップルの10─12月期は増収増益、1─3月見通しは市場予想下回る］
→［WSJ | Apple Net Rises, but Stock Falls on Forecast］
→［IT PLUS | アップル、10-12月期57％増益も慎重な業績見通しで株価下落 / WSJ］
→［New York Times | Apple Earnings Up, but Stock Falls on Outlook］
→［Bloomberg | Apple Shares Plunge After Forecast Misses Estimates (Update1)］
→［CNET | Apple posts nice Q1, but pessimistic on Q2］
→［CNET Japan | アップル、好調な第1四半期決算を発表–第2四半期については悲観的］
→［Blackfriars’ Marketing | A punishing market shouldn’t detract from Apple’s value］

Technorati Tags: Apple, Stock

アップルの株価が一時 200 ドルの大台に

As of 1:43 pm today, I saw Apple’s stock price pass $200 a share again (it had done so momentarily last week), and it is now up around $200.24 a share. While Apple is only 29 years old, the stock is now entering its third century — at least in terms of dollars.  [Carl Howe]

→［Blackfriars’ Marketing | Apple passes $200 a share again］
→［Seeking Alpha | Apple Hits $200, Rumors Abound］
→［MarketWatch | Apple shares hit all-time high before pulling back］
→［Barron’s Online | Apple Shares Cross $200; Let The Rumors Fly］
→［AP | Apple Trades at $200 for First Time］
→［PC World | Apple Stock Toys With $200 Per Share Mark］
→［TUAW | Santa’s present for Real Steve: AAPL $200］
→［Think Secret | Apple shares top $200］
→［AppleInsider | Apple shares touch $200; new iPhone panels in spring?］
→［NIKKEI NET | アップル、一時200ドル台乗せ］

Technorati Tags: Apple, Stock

どこまで上がるアップルの株価

アップルは iPhone や Apple TV などハードの収益を２４か月にわたって繰延計上すると４月に発表したが、今になってその効果が出始め、アナリストたちもやっと認識するにいたった、と Carl Howe がいっている。

Blackfriars’ Marketing: “Analysts starting to realize Apple has a brand new source of revenue” by Carl Howe: 08 November 2007

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隠れた収入、高い株価収益率

Hidden revenue justifies a higher P/E ratio. Apple announced in April that it would recognize revenue from the iPhone and Apple TV hardware sales over 24 months. This means that iPhone and Apple TV sales will largely appear on Appleﾕs balance sheet for the next couple years instead of in its income statement. Blackfriars believes that this hidden and guaranteed future revenue justifies raising the P/E ratio that we use to calculate target stock prices to 35 from 30. We fully expect Apple stock to reach those new targets of $131 in FY07 and $161 in FY08.

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明るい収益見通し

The fact that Apple-branded products show up — the only consumer electronics products specified by name — in the top three most in demand consumer products suggests that Apple’s holiday sales will be above what many expect. And with November iPhone launches occurring in the UK, Germany, and France, and the Euro-to-dollar exchange rate rising, Apple is developing a recurring revenue stream that no one really has historical data for, yet we believe that this revenue stream will add billions of dollar to its balance sheet each quarter.

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Carl Howe によるアップルの収益モデル

So here’s a rule of thumb I’ve come up with to provide a handle on Apple earnings, based upon my own models.

In very rough numbers, each million iPhones sold adds about $0.02 per share to annual earnings, $2 to Apple’s target stock price, and $350 million to its balance sheet.

Looked at this way, if Apple sells ten million iPhones next year, just those iPhones will have added $0.20 to its earnings, $20 to its stock price, and almost $3.5 billion to its cash horde to pay for future earnings. And of course, the iPhone is only one — and currently the smallest — of Apple’s four lines of business. So unless Apple stumbles somewhere along the way, those $250 price goals that analysts are quoting aren’t ridiculous; they’re just based on revenue streams and deferred revenue that aren’t immediately obvious.

Technorati Tags: Apple, Carl Howe, Stock

アップルの株式分割？

If history is any guide, the time is approaching for a stock-split from Apple.  [Forbes]

→［Forbes | Slicing Apple］
→［Seeking Alpha | Apple to Hit $225?］
→［MacNN | Analyst: Leopard to generate $240M in Q4］

Technorati Tags: Apple, Stock